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Tackling the Cost of Living Crisis

In this video, Max discusses the cost-of-living crisis currently enveloping the UK. He examines its impact on households as well as the overall economy.

CSR and Sustainability in Financial Services

In the first video of this two-part video series, Elisa introduces us to sustainability. She begins by looking at the difference between sustainability and corporate social responsibility, two terms that can be easily confused.

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Banking Essentials - Part I

This pathway will walk us through the basics of banks, starting with some of the different types and their main functions, then starting to look at the regulation faced by the banks, both before and after the Global Financial Crisis.

Greenwashing

Greenwashing is the act of distributing false information about something being more environmentally friendly than it actually is.

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+1,000 expert presented, on-demand video modules

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Tackling the Cost of Living Crisis

In this video, Max discusses the cost-of-living crisis currently enveloping the UK. He examines its impact on households as well as the overall economy.

CSR and Sustainability in Financial Services

In the first video of this two-part video series, Elisa introduces us to sustainability. She begins by looking at the difference between sustainability and corporate social responsibility, two terms that can be easily confused.

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Central Bank Climate Stress Tests

Central Bank Climate Stress Tests

Amit Kara

30 years: Macroeconomist

In the final video of his series, Amit Kara outlines the scope and objectives of a climate stress test exercise. He then summarises the climate scenarios that have been used by these central banks for their climate stress test exercises.

In the final video of his series, Amit Kara outlines the scope and objectives of a climate stress test exercise. He then summarises the climate scenarios that have been used by these central banks for their climate stress test exercises.

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Central Bank Climate Stress Tests

17 mins 38 secs

Key learning objectives:

  • Understand the objectives and scope of a climate stress test

  • Comprehend the climate scenarios used by banks for a climate stress test

Overview:

Stress tests are conducted by financial institutions or regulators to assess the resilience of financial institutions or the financial system as a whole. As banks begin to wake up to the climate crisis, they have embarked on stress tests that specifically focus on climate risks. It is vital to understand the scope and objectives of a climate stress test exercise before conducting one. Lack of action in this area or conducting a stress test too late often comes with consequences such as increased damage and costs.

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Summary

What are the three main objectives identified by the Bank of England for a climate stress testing exercise? 

  • To quantify the size of the exposure to climate risks of each participating institution and the financial sector as a whole
  • Understand the challenges to the business models of participating institutions 
  • Facilitate the management of climate risks in these organisations 

Why are physical risks important in a climate stress testing exercise? 

Physical risks, examples of which are heat waves, flooding, droughts, wildfires and tropical cyclones, are at their minimum when the Paris climate targets are met which, according to these scenarios, is achieved if net CO2 emissions drop to zero  by 2050. Put differently, physical risks are minimised when governments intervene with timely policies that help engineer a transition towards renewables and away from fossil fuels. Physical risks will be high when governments do little to decarbonise the economy.

How does late action (responding to climate risks too late), affect overall costs? 

Early action results in a net GDP loss of between 1.2-1.8% ; the cost of late action is around three times larger and the cost of doing nothing could be as high as 10% in Europe and the USA and around 15% in China. To summarise, the first important finding of these scenarios is that the cost in terms of output loss of early action is relatively low and the cost is high and rising when governments fail to respond in a timely manner.

Why does the probability of default of companies rise substantially under the ‘no additional action’ scenario? 

The ECB analysis also shows that the probability of default of companies rises substantially under the ‘no additional action’ scenario mainly because of the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events which of course is an example of physical risks.

When was the need for climate stress tests recognised?

The need for climate stress tests was recognised as early as 2016 at the European level by the European Systemic Risk Board and at the global level by the Financial Stability Board in 2017. 

 

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Amit Kara

Amit Kara

Amit is Associate Research Director for Global Macroeconomic Analysis at NIESR. He is a macroeconomist with experience in central banking, investment banking, commercial banking and corporate credit rating. He has most recently worked at HSBC where he helped design the forward economic guidance input for IFRS 9. Amit is currently working on two substantial research projects related to the macroeconomic impact of climate change.

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